Tuesday, March 31, 2020

2744 : Game theory applied to Covid-19 possible infection

I work amongst some very gifted mathematicians and game theorists.  So some of that rubs off on me, or so I so desperately wish :-).

India is about 4-5 weeks behind US. US today is at the stage (today) where the health professionals are rejecting or questioning work because there are 160000 cases, 3000+ deaths and over 50 of these are doctors/nurses.

Doctors and nurses are worried that they are also taking a brunt of the virus.

India today is at a very early stage - 1200 cases, 45 deaths.

Now here is the game theorist in me hoping for something strange. That if I must indeed get infected, then it must be now. Strange wish na :-). Here goes.

1) If I am in the early cases, I get the entire system to focus on me. They are still raring for a battle and not battle weary yet. And since the chances of me dying are 0.5-1%, am ok with that probability.

2) If I am in the early cases, I get the natural strain of the virus. As time progresses, the virus mutates to become a more and more efficient fighting machine. (The concept of vaccines is that broadly....they inject you with natural strain for which most of us have herd immunity.....and that prepares our body with antibodies...and when the new variant comes....instead of finding a simple sitting duck...it confronts a war zone with deadly antibodies ready.)
The more mutated or sophisticated the strain, the more difficult it is to fight. So the long tail or hump is really fighting an evolving enemy.

Now my dear friends, please debate with me and help me reflect on this. Is my selection biased?

For now, I am really leaning on the early side.

Come for me Covid-19 :-). I have probability and time on my side.

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