Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Post 553 : A bumdog millionaire ….

At times, I can be so full of myself (I am human, just like others). Last month, I was betting on stocks hoping to catch them on their bottom scraping ride….and then the gates opened, and I have had to fight hard just to stay afloat.

Last month, I said

My current favorite stocks include...
Titan - fundamentally strong franchise and trust. (CMP 800, like it below 900)
Gitanjali - They have some phenomenal brands. My only nagging worry is Mehul Choksi does not turn out to be a Raju. (CMP 46, like it below 90)
Natco Pharma - good pipeline of CRAM orders and some good generic portfolio (CMP 46, like it below 70)
BGR Energy Systems - looks poised to ride the downturn, inspite of the power sector going through tough times. (CMP 145 like it below 180)
Firstsource - a good BPO. I hope they last out this downturn (CMP 12, like it below 20)
Religare - smartest guys in the room - sitting with 5-6bn USD cash and a extremely organised and thriving I-banking and brokerage business. (CMP 320, like it below 400)
Pantaloon Retail - great brands (CMP 160, like it below 240)
Asian Paints - old warhouse, not a multi-bagger but a steady 20% growth per year. (CMP 750 like it below 800)
Tata Chemicals - monopoly in caustic soda (CMP 150, like it below 180)
Monsanto India - one of my old favs. ....I hate the company on ethical grounds (GM foods) but think its a great 20-30% year stock. (CMP 1300, like it below 1400)
Entertainment Network - BCCL company. Great OOH franchise. (CMP 130, like it below 200)
Glenmark Pharma - One of the best runs pharma mid caps (CMP 120, like it below 240)
Moser Baer - I goto planetm and all I see is Moser Baer CDs and someone is almost always buying them. Something must be right, but its not reflected in the stock price though. (CMP 61, like it below 200)
3i Infotech - a good IT mid-cap with gauranteed revenues from one of the biggest banks in Asia.
Tata Investment - strong book value, high dividend yeild and finally a TATA company. (CMP 35, like it below 50)
Infosys Technologies - I wont comment on them, they are beyond that now. (CMP 1300, like it below 1500)
Subex - A great telecom product franchise. Subash Menon is a good leader. (CMP 25, like it below 50)
Sintex - Moulded plastics and textiles. (CMP 130, like it below 200)
Mount everest mineral water - makers of the great "himalaya" brand water. Now a Tata company. (CMP 60, like it below 140)
Indage Vinters - Grover Vineyard at nashik. makers of chantilli. (CMP 80, like it below 140)
Indian Hotels - The iconic taj and ginger. (CMP 40, like it below 70)
Kamat Hotels - Orchid, VITS and the Vithal Kamat gang. (CMP 35, like it below 50)
Geometric - Niche software services. Manu Parpia run...(CMP 18, like it below 40)
Comments invited

 

And today, my picks remain the same – save everything at least a further 20% down.

Titan - fundamentally strong franchise and trust. (CMP 700(versus 800 in feb), like it below 900)
Gitanjali - They have some phenomenal brands. My only nagging worry is Mehul Choksi does not turn out to be a Raju. (CMP 33(versus 45 in feb), like it below 90)
Natco Pharma - good pipeline of CRAM orders and some good generic portfolio (CMP 46(neutral), like it below 70)
BGR Energy Systems - looks poised to ride the downturn, inspite of the power sector going through tough times. (CMP 115(versus 145 in feb) like it below 180)
Firstsource - a good BPO. I hope they last out this downturn (CMP 10.25 (versus 12 in Feb) like it below 20)
Religare - smartest guys in the room - sitting with 5-6bn USD cash and a extremely organised and thriving I-banking and brokerage business. (CMP 320(neutral), like it below 400)
Pantaloon Retail - great brands (CMP 100(versus 160), like it below 240)
Asian Paints - old warhouse, not a multi-bagger but a steady 20% growth per year. (CMP 700(versus 750) like it below 800)
Tata Chemicals - monopoly in caustic soda (CMP 99(versus 150), like it below 180)
Monsanto India - one of my old favs. ....I hate the company on ethical grounds (GM foods) but think its a great 20-30% year stock. (CMP 1150(versus 1300), like it below 1400)
Entertainment Network - BCCL company. Great OOH franchise. (CMP 108 (versus 130), like it below 200)
Glenmark Pharma - One of the best runs pharma mid caps (CMP 130(up by 10), like it below 240)
Moser Baer - I goto planetm and all I see is Moser Baer CDs and someone is almost always buying them. Something must be right, but its not reflected in the stock price though. (CMP 41  (versus 61), like it below 200)
3i Infotech - a good IT mid-cap with guaranteed revenues from one of the biggest banks in Asia. (25 versus 33)
Tata Investment - strong book value, high dividend yeild and finally a TATA company. (CMP 190 versus 215, like it below 50)
Infosys Technologies - I wont comment on them, they are beyond that now. (CMP 1100 versus 1300, like it below 1500)
Subex - A great telecom product franchise. Subash Menon is a good leader. (CMP 20 versus 25, like it below 50)
Sintex - Moulded plastics and textiles. (CMP 72 versus 130, like it below 200)
Mount everest mineral water - makers of the great "himalaya" brand water. Now a Tata company. (CMP 42 versus 60, like it below 140)
Indage Vinters - Grover Vineyard at nashik. makers of chantilli. (CMP 40 versus 40, like it below 140)
Indian Hotels - The iconic taj and ginger. (CMP 33 versus 40, like it below 70)
Kamat Hotels - Orchid, VITS and the Vithal Kamat gang. (CMP 27 versus 25, like it below 50)
Geometric - Niche software services. Manu Parpia run...(CMP 12 versus 18, like it below 40)

 


How bad can it get? I dont know. How much worse can my stock picking get? The answer is an ego-crushing, “lot more”.

I am 82% down from my peak portfolio, lost over 23% in the past month.

My only saving grace, I am still buying bits and pieces which I like – whenever this upturn happens –hopefully I will have some mullti-baggers. Till then, I will go back to flogging myself.

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