Monday, November 10, 2008

Post 453 : A blue whale beached by a spring tide's ebb

The spring tide is out to browbeat and bulldoze....

My portfolio was over 70% down since highs. I usually don't bend or feel the pinch, even when the times are down. But this time it was different...

I just came out of a period, where I saw my employer (an US I-bank) go-down in a matter of days (not months!!). This experience/memory was fresh....Coming back to the local markets, my biggest bets were on Suzlon and Moser Baer. Given the rumors surrounding Suzlon (and given it is as non-transparent) as a Reliance...I just gave in.

I sold off a bulk of my positions in both of these. They used to be 88% of my portfolio.

My new re-balanced portfolio now includes:

1. Small residual bits of Suzlon (CMP 68) and Moser Baer (CMP 78) (I still believe in these 2 giants, just that I can't over-leverage. My own faith is deserting me at times like these...too much at stake).
2. Mount Everest Mineral Water (fanstastic brand Himalaya, great margins and now a TATA company) (CMP 90)
3. GM Breweries (a company that is valued at 44CR at CMP of Rs.44, makes profit of 15cr per year, pays 2.50 per stock as dividend, 6.5 % yeild).
4. Champagne Indage (My wine fascination does not end with just Sula, Grover is part of it as well. Drink Chantilli ) (CMP 150)
5. Balaji Distilleries (generates 74cr in profit and is selling for 95cr...does not add up at all)
6. United Breweries (I am betting big on legal liquors in India, its obvious by now....remember liquor is almost recession proof) (Not a value buy at all @ CMP 150, is very expensive @ over 40PE, but still I believe in it)
7. India Hotels  (the whole enterprise is close to 900m at this point, no brainer!!) (49 CMP)
7. Small holdings in Religare(CMP 330),  Entertainment Network(CMP 135), Bayer Crop Science(CMP 220ish), Adlabs (CMP 180), Gitanjali Gems(CMP 90)....

I think I am done for now - will not sell now for at least 3 years. Will accumulate more of these (and new ones) as and when my monies allow. My desire to be baselined (for a fresh start, for new beginnings) has been executed today.

At the end of this carnage, I am now around 25% of my peak porfolios. The battle lines are drawn, my fort has just been re-inforced, the chink in my armor is gone....From tomorrow, balls to the spring tide.....this is an amphibian whale!!

(Title comes from Sting's King of Pain)

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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Amitabh,
I had a big chunk of Balaji Dist & Champange Indage bought in 2003, GM is the biggest desi daru company in maharastra, I guess when there is a happyness or sorrow these guys make money.

Do you still have Hinduja?.

I hope and pray your portfolio starts zooming again, Let the King of good times roll.
cheers