On Friday evening, everyone I spoke to was sure that the match between India and Sri Lanka was fixed and that 'we' Indians shall win it. Everyone said that almost 1500cr is at stake, someone will grease, and someone will be greased just enough, to make sure the machinery turns in our favor.
Some folks went so far to say, that if India lose, they would be delighted, because that would conclusively prove that betting does not exist.
My contrarian point was (and is):
1. Betting is a business of 'views'. The bookie makes money when most people ideally bet in favor of a view which as far as possible from what really happens (e.g. If everyone was already hoping(and hence betting) for a India win (whether because of fixing or otherwise), the bookie would ideally make money, if India lost miserably to SL and thats what happened - and the paradoxically the bookie would ideally like to 'fix' the match in this favor, rather the previously assumed position).
2. Betting is a much bigger business than ads and sponsorship - and sadly in my opinion the mafia has its fingers in both pies - the 'legal' media bit and the betting bit. The single large shareholder (the mafia) would not mind losing on one front(media) , if he got adeuquetely compensated on the other (betting). [ For the record, TOI on 25th March 2007, reported that punters and bookies raked in about 1200cr after India's defeat....get my drift?]
So in my opinion, we should have expected India to lose to SL (if betting does decide matches) - just as we should have expected India to lose to bangladesh.
My prediction 1:
I was with a few friends out on the countryside on the day of the India vs. BAN match - early in the morning (the match was in the evening)- I said rationally (based on my betting theory) that India will lose. I should have blogged it to make myself an acclaimed soothsayer.
My prediction 2:
Using my same theory, that a bookie makes money only if we all bet in the direction which will not happen - and that once he knows which side the bet is going - he can use the powers-that-be to fix it onto the 'other' side - what can we predict?
No one expects Bermuda to beat Ban? Our odds of making it to the semifinal have fallen out - people have bought out their older bets - by paying 'escape' money - that is they have sold their 'position' (bets), just like you do in a stock market - so for example someone who betted on India going to semi-final, bet Rs.100 on it, has now sold the 'bet' to someone else at Rs.10, because at least he hopes to redeem Rs.10 out of what appears a dead deal. Must remember, the event itself is not yet completely decided, its up for grabs.
Now you get the drift.....in stock market terms, we are all currently 'oversold' on India not making it to the final.
So whats my prediction? If the matches are indeed fixed and if my theory is right, Bermuda will; easily defeat BAN today and India make it back to the super8.
I am not a bookie or a bettor, but yes I understand probablity theory well, I understand how the stock market works, and can extrapolate it to the bookie world - and yes, I love taking contrarian picks. If I was a bettor, would put all my dough on Bermuda winning and hopefully make a killing. And if I was a fixer, I would fix the match all the way upto the fact that India does not make it to the super8.
The start of the match is still 4 hours away, if Bermuda does win, you know who told you about it first.
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